AREA IMPACTS
Ukiah & Inland Mendocino County
The proposed decommissioning of the Potter Valley Project could impact water supplies, agriculture, property values, local communities, and Tribal communities throughout Ukiah Valley and Inland Mendocino County.
Water Supply & Groundwater
Decreased filling of Lake Mendocino leaves water right holders along the Russian River corridor facing a heightened risk of regular, severe seasonal curtailments, threatening the viability of agricultural operations and local water districts and native American tribes that depend on predictable surface water availability.
In the South Ukiah Valley, where municipal, residential, agricultural and Tribal sectors rely extensively on the underlying valley aquifer, the reduction in river volume compromises critical groundwater recharge. In years past, robust summer surface flows in the Russian River naturally percolated through the porous gravel beds of the valley floor, maintaining shallow water tables. As river volumes drop to natural, unassisted baseline levels during dry months, the regional water table will experience accelerated drawdown. Private residential wells and municipal backup wells throughout the southern valley risk running dry or requiring expensive deepening, forcing a greater, unsustainable strain on a finite and diminishing groundwater resource.
Rising Water Costs
Compounding these supply challenges are the immense structural and financial burdens associated with the newly formed Eel-Russian Project Authority (ERPA).
Capital improvements required to construct a new, modern water diversion facility—which must operate completely separate from the decommissioned PG&E dams—will require hundreds of millions of dollars in regional investment. For municipal water providers spanning from the City of Ukiah to the various special districts serving the unincorporated North and South Ukiah Valley neighborhoods, these massive capital expenses will inevitably be passed down. Local ratepayers and working-class families will face escalating water utility rates just to secure a fraction of the historical water volume they previously received at low cost.
Agriculture & Local Economy
The economic backbone of the entire Ukiah Valley—its historical agricultural footprint of premium vineyards, pear orchards, and ranching operations—stands at a precarious crossroads.
The transition away from abundant, low-cost surface water to highly regulated, expensive alternative irrigation systems will drastically narrow profit margins for multi-generational farming families. If farmers are forced to transition permanently from surface water to heavily restricted groundwater pumping, the lack of sufficient irrigation during peak summer heat waves could lead to widespread crop loss or forced fallowing of land. This agricultural contraction would severely damage the broader regional economy, reducing local employment, curbing processing revenue, and permanently diminishing the valley's agrarian identity.
Property Values & County Revenue
Beyond immediate operational and utility cost strains, the structural water instability introduced removal of the dams poses a direct, systemic threat to private property values across both the North and South Ukiah Valleys.
For residential homeowners—particularly those reliant on shallow, unadjudicated wells or small, vulnerable mutual water companies—the looming threat of seasonal groundwater depletion or mandatory usage restrictions severely damages property marketability and long-term equity. In the commercial and agricultural sectors, a parcel's value is inextricably tied to the reliability of its underlying water rights. Deprived of secure, low-cost surface allocations from Lake Mendocino, premium agricultural acreage faces severe deflationary pressure, directly reducing the borrowing capacity of local legacy farming operations.
This widespread deflation of the real estate market will inevitably contract the county's property tax base, stripping essential funding from local infrastructure, public safety, and community services at a time when the valley can least afford it.
Tribal Communities & Cultural Resources
For the Coyote Valley Band of Pomo Indians, including the Hopland Band Pomo Rancheria, the Pinoleville Pomo Nation, the Yokayo Rancheria, the Guidiville Tribe near Talmage, and residential communities that are situated directly along the East Fork corridor or the Mendocino County portion of the Russian River watershed, the decommissioning plan carries profound environmental justice implications.
The Tribes rely significantly on local groundwater systems and dedicated utility infrastructure to provide safe drinking water to Tribal citizens, community elders, and economic enterprises. Recently the Guidiville Tribe signed a new license with the Russian River Flood Control, but as summer trans-basin diversions through the Potter Valley Project phase out, the resulting reduction in natural river percolation along the upper valley floor threatens to rapidly draw down the local water table. This forced environmental shift places an inequitable operational and financial strain on all Tribal water utilities, threatening well production and forcing the Tribes to defend its sovereign water rights against downstream municipal and agricultural encroachment.
Beyond infrastructural impacts, the reduction of sustained, high-quality river flows directly compromises the cultural and ecological stewardship of the Pomo people and other Tribes. The East Fork of the Russian River is fundamentally tied to historical Tribal identity, traditional basketry gathering, and ceremonial practices. Under the California Water Board's active designation of Tribal Beneficial Uses (TBUs), the state is legally obligated to protect waterbodies essential to Native American cultural and traditional practices. Lower baseline water levels during peak summer months elevate water temperatures and foster toxic algal blooms, severely threatening the native aquatic species and riparian habitats the Tribe protects. Failing to guarantee stable, protective baseline flows under the new diversion framework constitutes a failure to respect Tribal sovereignty and the sacred trust resources of the valley's original inhabitants.
